第五元素

性别战争一年后，二游市场基本盘依然稳固_我的网站

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一 | 在大概2024年，那场浩浩荡荡席卷大半个二游圈子性别战争来临的时候，我们曾经抛出过一个观点：那就是如果当性别叙事立成了二游的主流叙事，那么一直以来支撑二次元游戏的大多数一般向游戏都会没有生存的空间。 India and emerging market economies (EMEs) will gain “substantially,” reckoned experts, as Japan-based Nomura Holdings predicts “multiple recessions” for the world’s major economies over the next 12 months.,Nomura Holdings on Monday noted that the US, Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will fall into recession amid tightening government policies and rising living costs.,“A recession in developed countries can result in heightened interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors towards emerging markets, including India, which is the fastest-growing major economy in the world”, Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, told Sputnik.,Haldea blames the US Fed rate hike aimed at controlling the rising living costs for the current capital outflow from emerging markets, saying interest rates in the US have a huge bearing on FPI flows.,Foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth $6.4 billion in June — the highest net outflow in over two years. Foreign investors withdrew $27.9 billion from Indian equities in the first six months of 2022.,“Once the current rate hike cycle shows signs of abating, FPIs shall again look at emerging markets with renewed interest”, Haldea reckoned.,Economists observe Fed missteps such as the delayed response to inflation, which the latter labeled “transitory” until March this year, hamper economic activity in the US. The US recorded 8.6 percent inflation in May, the highest in four decades.,Massive inflationary pressure is also hindering growth in European economies such as Germany, Spain, and France, which registered 7.6, 10, and 5.2 percent price rises in May, respectively. Inflation in the UK is running at 9.1 percent.,US Unlikely to Avoid Severe Recession if Fed Hikes Interest Rates Too Quickly to Cool Inflation2 July, 02:42 GMT,Economists warn of spreading high inflation beyond commodities to services items, rentals, and wages.,Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying wrote in a research note that there are increasing signs that the world economy is entering a “synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth”.,Professor Manoj Pant, a prominent economist and vice chancellor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said that emerging markets would also be affected by a decline in trade; still, some factors may lessen the impact.,“The factors which are operating in our favor are that the bulk of the buying consumers are located in India, and the current geopolitical situation means a lot of countries are looking at India not as a complete replacement, but as a possible third area apart from China and Vietnam”, Pant told Sputnik.,Nomura forecasts a prolonged recession in the United States and a much deeper slump in Europe if Russia entirely cuts off gas to the region.,Despite the global headwinds, the Indian economy is predicted to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal, much higher than any other major global economy.,Experts advise Indian policymakers to capitalize on the structural changes that began in 2016-17 onwards but that were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.,“The world is moving much more towards services than manufacturing. China’s boom was based on manufacturing, the services boom will have to be in India. So the question is how well we are able to take account of that. So depending on us, we can actually gain substantially, if we are ready”, Pant added.,However, Pant labeled the new forecast as a continuation of the 2019 recessions, as there has been no boom registered anywhere in the world since then.,China infuses immense hopes to all the developing economies, as economists bet on demand from the world's second-largest economy to mitigate negative impacts, even though they face slowing export demand from the US and Europe.。

二 | 油门一旦踩到底，大家都别想安生玩游戏了。当然不出意外的，那个观点被视作是软弱派、保守派。而时间来到2025年的10月份，在将近一年半后的现在再回头来看那场曾席卷了大半个二游圈子的性别战争后。我们幸运地发现，几乎所有在那场性别战争中或主动，或被迫做出选择的二游，它们大多数都仍然以自己的方式，坚持地活下去。

三 | 这也一直和我们所坚持的“长线运营游戏不能只看一时的表现”这一观点相符。（在那场风波中一直位于最中央的少前2国际服2024年年底上线后立刻登顶，流水3天破亿）或许只是这么说，有一些关注社区节奏的玩家会想用最近期的国庆前ML游戏圈闹的一件大节奏来反驳，指责游戏竟敢自己切割“基本盘”。但是，这种说法的逻辑能否成立暂且另说，麻辣（MasterLove）本身能代表二次元游戏这点，就已经没办法站住脚了。毕竟麻辣这一要素只是二次元游戏中“角色塑造”这一细枝末节的部分，麻辣仙人更是玩家少数群体中的少数群体。根据7月31日游戏出版工作委员会和游戏产业专家委员会在电子产业大会上出具的报告，2025年上半年游戏市场产值1680亿元，而二次元游戏只有145.77亿元，只占整个游戏市场的少部分，并且同比下降8%。但反观整体消费市场，选择过节不送礼的男性大幅度增加，男性市场消费激增，单机游戏在《黑神话：悟空》等游戏的带领下突飞猛进…… 各类游戏该拥护的“基本盘”画像，究竟是什么，还得等后续市场反应，但至少“麻辣”这一在当今已代表绝对的男性向要素的词汇，确实没办法止住二次元游戏整体的颓势，是可以确定的。站在现在这样一个路口来看，至少有些事情是稳中向好的。二游整个市场用一年多的时间来证明了那就是它整体的基本盘其实是很难被动摇的，哪怕是当前版本以魔法免疫姿态完全只做输出的极端性别叙事也没办法改变二游。很多时候被刻意忽视了的沉默的大多数，并不是节奏对他们的影响并没有那么大，而是他们比很多很多人想的要坚韧。

四 | 毕竟在性别叙事以一种极端的攻击姿态将二游和宅男文娱简单地画上等号，大家在传播性压抑这种自嘲的互联网梗的时候，营收市场的整体表现再一次证明了大家在乎的其实不是性，美术、暴露或是一系列的表征特点。

五 | 整个2025年上架新二游，也有不少已经显露颓势——但你会发现，这些颓势几乎没有一个是因为ML相关要素导致的。大家在乎的，仍旧是游戏性，以及游戏各个内容所传递的更直击深处的东西。当然，在二游这个圈子里对麻辣的讨论和争议是必然会出现的。应该说整个中文互联网上的二次元圈子，一直都在出现类似的历史进程，只是声浪大小参与讨论人数的区别。上一次大概是2017年附近的知乎，那个时候知乎上关于二次元有一个非常破圈层的讨论，那就是动画应不应该【媚宅】。（俺妹就是在当时被讨论的最多的）当时的正方认为，动画就是给宅男宅女看的，媚宅是正确的商业选择，是天经地义。

六 | 而反方观点就非常多了，说动画是艺术品艺术创作，说动画应该也有教育意义，说什么什么。最后得出的结论是动画应不应该媚宅，取决于动画本身的定位。宫崎骏那种动画大师他有能力将整个日本社会人们的焦虑和在乎的东西，社会现象用动画的方式表达和记录出来，那他就做。有一些深夜动画，必然是要涉及到性方面的暗示，那也是他们生存的一部分，说他们不应该【媚宅】这个讨论从一开始就不成立。但很难不去承认的一件事是，媚宅这个词语在大多数语境下被迫沾着一些功利，还有贬义。最近，关于《弹珠汽水瓶千岁同学》也有与媚宅相关的节奏让动画区战火久违重燃，我们之后也会专门写文聊聊这事。

七 | 再往前数，大概还有类似的讨论。不过那个时候的讨论是在早期的GALGAME圈子，当时针对柚子社为首的“废萌”这一风格也有进行毁誉参半、富有争议的正剧VS废萌的讨论。这个讨论甚至延续到了2020年代，有人说《夏空彼方》之后无柚子，也有人说《魔女的夜宴》是柚子社彻底转型废萌赛道后依然能做出兼顾剧情的好作品…… 但最后讨论也没有讨论出一个结果，最后只是让许多GALGAME玩家分成了多个派别。二次元这个圈子本来就是靠着参与者大家的精神表达和审美表达建立起来的，会出现分歧和分化都是非常正常的事情。二游在国内火起来，人数越来越多之后就容易产生声浪大，也会出现节奏。麻辣仙人这样极端性别叙事环境下的意识形态群体的出现，是历史的必然。但他们从性别战争中发声的火炮手，再到要用有组织有预谋的伤害自己“信任”的游戏，和成为厂商的加害者，也是一种历史必然。你可以说是极端人群的利益和大部分人的利益冲突，但这样的说法有些冰冷。并不是主流游戏玩家不需要或者容忍不下麻辣仙人了，毕竟曾经关于媚宅的讨论也好，废萌的讨论也好，分出了那么多价值观不同的观点、意见，可大家依旧能在一个大圈子里共存。而是麻辣仙人，自己走向了本该跟他们站在一起的可以团结的大多数的对立面。一群深度需求ML游戏的玩家，却在用过激甚至违法的手段亲手去伤害一个ML游戏。现在2025年的下半年也即将结束。